Cassandra, Jim Hansen, and the Kendall Foundation
In Greek mythology
Cassandra was a soothsayer who was empowered by the god Apollo
to foretell forthcoming events. Apollo took a special liking to
her and when she rejected his amorous advances, he put a hex on
her--sustaining her ability to accurately describe future events,
but ensuring that her prophesies would be perceived as lies. She
was doomed to foretell what others would refuse to believe.
There were
indeed consequences-as the citizens of Troy could later see after
opening their gates to the wooden horse proffered by the Greeks.
We might fairly assume that Cassandra, daughter of King Priam
of Troy, gained no pleasure from saying, Dad, I told you so.
There have
surely been days when NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen and other
climate scientists felt kinship with Cassandra. For more than
twenty years atmospheric expert Hansen has sought to alert us
to the likelihood of forthcoming changes in the earth's climate
that his modeling indicates. Yet for the past six years the Administration
in Washington has essentially said, "We don't believe it.
Let's study it some more. Prove it!"-knowing full well that
models cannot provide absolute certainty about cause and effect
in the short term.
The generally
successful effort of the White House, aided by petroleum industry
lobbyists, put a (political) "hex" on the collective
voice of climate scientists. They have succeeded in bringing the
Trojan horse of potentially radical climate events into our relatively
comfortable livelihoods.
While anger directed at the "carbon lobby" and Washington
politicians for putting future generations at huge risk may be
warranted, perhaps the expression of deep sadness and distress
is more apt. An incredible opportunity for global leadership has
been wasted-and is still being missed.
The
world's atmospheric scientists believe that climate change results
from our own carbon emissions that lead to a global warming and
very likely cause and intensify other catastrophic weather events-heat
waves, drought, flooding, and hurricanes. Polls show that most
Americans know that the climate is changing because they have
experienced it and a majority believes we are causing this.
Polling also
shows a partisan divide in American public opinion with far more
Democrats than Republicans attributing climate change to human
use of carbon-laden fossil fuels. Recently this partisan divide
appears to be closing.
We also know
that some insurance companies have come to regard climate events
as high-cost business risks and that top Wall Street financial
houses are investing in new energy-generating sources that will
minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Note, too, that adapting to
climate change in some locales has become costly; an entire Alaskan
village has been moved inland from the eroding Arctic coastline
at a cost of millions of dollars. Melting glacier and permafrost
across the Arctic are other widely recognized signs of warming.
We know all these things.
The real "shock
and awe" of recent years was not the assault on Baghdad,
but the impact of Katrina on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. The
force of that hurricane was hundreds of times beyond Gen. Tommy
Frank's firepower-and the destruction greater by many orders of
magnitude. We must assume that Nature is now reloading, and not
with anemic 6-shooters.
Absolute scientific proof of human-caused climate change
is not available and is not likely to be available for some time-far
longer than policy or legislative timelines can afford to wait.
A few non-believers may wait until Manhattan residents are commuting
by snorkel in 10 feet of seawater. The concept of the tipping
point, popularized by Malcolm Gladwell, speaks to potential
catastrophic events like the mass migration of the Greenland Ice
Shelf into the North Atlantic. Only potential, yes, but ongoing
ice-core research shows the signs all pointing in one direction.
To treat the potential for huge climate disruptions as unthinkable
is now, well, unthinkable.
the Potential Climate Losers?
In the destruction wrought by Hurricane Katrina's assault we have
seen that climate change hurts the vulnerable. Floods,
droughts, hurricanes and heat waves are going to inflict the greatest
suffering and mortality losses on those who are least protected.
Geographic disadvantage in the case of sea level rise will likely
displace millions of Bangladeshis and Pacific Islanders-and, yes,
South Floridians, coastal Alaskans, and legions of others in time.
Heat waves like those in this decade that hit Paris and Chicago
preyed heavily on older and infirm people. Disease that is likely
to accompany temperature rise and fresh water scarcity will likely
hit infants and children most severely.
The biggest
losers are going to be everyone in the generations to follow.
Our children, grandchildren and theirs will cope with climatic
assaults on daily life that we have helped to bring about. Coping
with changes that are already certain to occur-changes in the
coastlines, agricultural lands, forests, and fresh water availability-will
impose untold social and financial costs.
Modern society's long-time friend carbon has become a renegade,
apparently turning on us. It must be incarcerated or penalized
by imposing a carbon tax and developing new ways to reduce or
entomb CO2 emissions. A strong national policy that recognizes
America's dominant greenhouse gas emissions and accepts and seizes
a moral obligation to act is overdue. We need to spur investments
in clean energy technologies and demand aggressive conservation
measures to reduce consumption! Political will and entrepreneurial
responses are most needed.
Missing thus
far is a popular movement that will push the policy agenda
forward and make responses to climate change the concern of everyone.
Perhaps the most important potential force for action is today's
college student generation because this age group has so much
more to lose.
More disasters
like Katrina, Chicago heat waves and Western wildfires, along
with widespread flooding appear necessary to catalyze Americans
to action. Escalating energy prices will help but they lack the
drama of catastrophe. A well-worn truism has it that, "When
the people lead, their leaders will follow." Or could
we envision genuine American political leadership on a global
scale?
Kendall Trustees are significantly increasing the foundation's
grant budget in 2006-2007 by drawing from our endowment for current
investments (grants) in climate change solutions. Foundation dollars
invested in climate solutions today-mitigation of emissions and
planning for adaptation to extreme and changing weather events-seem
certain to bring much higher returns than those invested 5-10
years into the future.
This is not
a time for foundations to rearrange the deck chairs by modifying
program budgets in conventional ways. The Titanic sank
when it hit an iceberg drifting south from Greenland. Dr. Hansen's
cautions indicate that modern society may be headed for another
Greenland iceberg of continental proportions and thus a truly
catastrophic "sinking" of life on planet earth as we
know it today.
To change
the way we are headed will take the creation of a movement where
all citizens recognize the stakes. If we are too slow to provoke
and inspire a popular movement, then Cassandra's, I told you so!
will become an endnote for a tragic, avoidable legacy we have
bestowed on those who will follow us.
Theodore M. Smith
Executive Director
July, 2006
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